From what I gather human knowledge of the possibility of climate change was first theorized way back in the 1840s and basically proven, by experiment, by the early 1900s.
The first time I heard of it was in the early 1970’s in an article I remember reading about when Richard Nixon signed the clean air act into law. Some scientist whom I regarded at the time as a dimwit proposed that cleaning the soot and other particulate from the smokestacks would still leave behind the CO2 and in effect by removing the shading effect of the particulates, increase the speed of anthropogenic global warming.
I thought that fellow was dimwitted at the time because I liked being able to see through the air, which was not the case in the Ohio River Valley in the mid to late 1960s and I just could not grasp how fixing that could possibly have any negative effects. Turns out I was wrong. From what I could see though the 1970s and 1980s things got quite a bit better, I thought. Although they built a bunch of giant coal fired power plants up and down the river nothing visible came from the smokestacks except steam.
Also, in the 70s and into the 80s I learned more about anthropogenic climate change and although it seemed logical to me, I was skeptical. I just couldn’t at the time, grasp that people could possibly do something on that scale, I mean, planets are big. I also remember thinking, and so what if they do? A degree or two warmer just means that a 90-degree day will be 91 and a -5-degree night will be -4, that’s not so bad and besides it isn’t going to happen for a hundred years, so it doesn’t matter to me anyway. Turns out I was wrong and wrong on those points also.
I remember watching Carl Sagan address the US congress on the matter in I think 1986. I have unshakable faith in Carl Sagan and believed everything he said and nothing I’ve learned since has altered that, in fact only reinforced it. Carl Sagan was not a soothsayer or a religious prophet or a political hack. He didn’t even have a YouTube following or a TikTok account. He was just a very smart fellow who did some math and found what comes out to the right of the equal sign. His calculations on a time frame however turned out to be off by a significant amount because they were based on the “current 1986” rate of emissions. The current, current rate is nearly double the 1986 rate, as well as more forest cut or burned, and more land covered in concrete.
So, by the 1990s as I began to notice odd things like longer dry spells or daffodils in full bloom being frozen down to the ground by a hard freeze or dried up in a few hours by something akin to Santa Anna Winds, I got to thinking maybe this stuff really is real. I never doubted Sagan’s words but still I didn’t want to actually accept it and I also had my fall back of, nothing really bad will happen in my lifetime. Wrong again.
When I moved here, I made a little tiny garden with my shovel. I did all the stuff like double digging, raised beds, square foot, French intensive, mulching. I banned insecticides and fertilizers and started saving even more of my own seeds. Then I was gifted a rototiller and somewhat against my better judgment massively increased the size of the gardens. That took a few years and all the time the dry spells got more frequent and longer although thankfully not really much hotter.
I’ve since abandoned the rototiller and downsized but not as small as I had at first. It’s easier to keep up with all aspects of garden work and with the dry spells becoming still more frequent and longer lasting made it easier to water when necessary. So, I thought OK, I’ll try to find or select my plants for drought tolerance and along with careful cultivation practices everything will work out fine.
As years passed, the dry spells while still common turned out not to be reliable. They might now be punctuated with downpours of five or eight inches in a couple of hours and repeatedly over several days or a few weeks. Five inches might fall on my garden and none five miles away, it might also be accompanied by hail approaching the size of tennis balls and moving horizontally. Even weirder is what happened in our used to be hottest month of August a couple years ago, the entire month saw highs of 80 F or less and a few lights sprinkles every day, more the half of my sweet potato seeds rotted or sprouted, in the pods. June was like that this year. A few years before that July saw highs in the 50s F followed by a very hot August.
So, my plan for adaptation to increased drought turned out to be wrong, again. Batting a thousand here I reckon although I’m not a sports fan and don’t really know what that means other than from context.
Now I don’t expect homo sapiens or much of anything else to be around all that much longer, sorry for the inconvenience, but that’s just what comes up to the right of the equal sign. A bit encouraging at least for me is that as described, my track record on being right in these matters is dismal, at best. And even if I am right this time, it’s certainly not today and probably not tomorrow, at least for those not currently on fire or underwater.
As far as what can be done overall, I’ve been there, done that. Few if any individual people have planted as many trees as I, few Americans at least, have owned fewer cars, driven or flown fewer miles or put less in the landfills and it hasn’t helped one teeny, tiny, little bit, and I’m tired. I do however encourage everyone else to keep doing it if you’re in the mood, lots of it.
As far as in the garden, since I was so wrong about adapting to drought, I’ve come up with some other plans.
First, I originated the idea that since weather is going to become more extreme and unpredictable that the best thing to do might to be heavy selection for fast maturity. This allows the highest probability of a successful harvest between, disasters. Additionally, it might allow for two or even three successive harvests in one year, just in case a disaster free one comes along.
Second, I really like the idea I heard of here on this forum I think, of considering general stress resistance rather than specific resistance to disease, or drought, or flooding. It sounds similar to Robertson’s vertical v horizontal resistance to disease only perhaps broader. I think I may even have a bit of a head start in my multiple plantings per season because a cowpea planted in late April experiences a vastly different environment than one planted in July. I don’t see value in attempting to create multiple landraces of the same crop in the same location. Sounds just about impossible, at least for me.
Third, is my idea of reuniting the different types of a species into a landrace selected to adapt itself largely by itself, into whatever works for it, in my location. This is especially useful with bi-annual crops and since I was never very good at getting seed from them anyway, gives me an excuse to forget everything I knew about how it is supposed to be done. This is what I’ve had pretty good success with onions and my broccol-ish. It basically involves planting these crops at the same time or soon after they do it themselves. This year I’m excited to have an abundance of my own carrot and Swiss chard seeds and will in the next few days be planting all of those things. It is turning hot and dry here after the dreary, drippy June and first half of July, so I don’t expect they will sprout until it rains, but that’s fine. If they can wait, so can I.
Anybody got any other ideas on adapting to the new normal. The new not defined a s a new stable or predictable state but rather of continued and accelerating change.